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Lead story · Inflation

Prices are rising more slowly. So why does the grocery bill still feel heavier?

Inflation measures how fast prices change, not how high they are. Here is the gap between the headline number and what you pay at the till, and what it means for your wages.

The gap, in one chart

Price level keeps climbing even as inflation falls

Illustrative data for demonstration · Index: Jan 2025 = 100

Inflation3.1%

Lowest in 26 months. Prices still up, more slowly.

Policy rate8.50%

Cut by 50 basis points at the last meeting.

Unemployment6.3%

Roughly 1 in 16 people looking for work.

GDP growth2.8%

Annual pace, up from 2.1% a year ago.

Thursday 29 October

Today's briefing

Central bank signals one more cut before year-end

The governor said inflation is near target and further easing is possible if fuel prices hold steady.

Why it matters: lower rates reduce monthly loan payments.

Fuel prices unchanged for the second fortnight

Global oil prices drifted lower this month, offsetting the weaker currency.

Why it matters: transport costs feed into almost every price.

Textile exports rise 9% on new European orders

Exporters credit cheaper energy and a softer exchange rate for winning back buyers.

Why it matters: exports bring in dollars and support factory jobs.

Banks report the first rise in home-loan applications this year

Applications rose for the third straight week as borrowers expect rates to keep falling.

Why it matters: housing demand is an early sign of confidence.
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Terms like basis point or real wage are defined where they appear.

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Chart of the week

When the central bank moves, borrowing costs follow

Policy rates rise to cool inflation. Mortgage rates track them closely, with a short lag. Tap a series to hide it, or hover the chart to read any month.

Illustrative data for demonstration · Percent per year

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Your questions, answered in plain words

Every week our reporters answer reader questions about money and the economy. No question is too basic.

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If inflation is falling, why aren't prices going down?Asked by Sana, Lahore

Falling inflation means prices are rising more slowly, not that they are dropping. Prices only fall during deflation, which is rare and usually comes with weak business and job losses.

What can improve is your buying power, if your pay rises faster than prices over the next year or two.

Should I keep savings in dollars or rupees?Asked by Omar, Karachi

We can't give personal financial advice, but we can explain the trade-off. Foreign currency protects against a falling rupee, while rupee savings accounts usually pay higher interest. The gap between the two is roughly what markets expect the currency to lose each year.

What does the IMF actually do when it lends to a country?Asked by Hira, Islamabad

The IMF lends to countries that are short of foreign currency to pay for imports or debt. In return, governments agree to conditions such as cutting deficits, raising tax collection or letting the exchange rate move more freely. The loan buys time; the conditions are meant to fix the cause.

Why does the stock market rise when the economy feels bad?Asked by Ali, Faisalabad

Share prices reflect what investors expect companies to earn in the future, not how people feel today. When rates are expected to fall, borrowing gets cheaper for companies and bonds pay less, so shares look more attractive even before daily life improves.

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